THE RUNDOWN: CANELO ALVAREZ VS. GENNADIY GOLOVKIN 3
Back in September of 2017, many believed Golovkin was denied a victory in their first encounter. Then, in September of the following year, their rematch was much closer. While Alvarez earned the majority decision, the boxing audience was still split as to which fighter deserved the nod. In this third installment, both fighters are looking to finally successfully close the book on their bitter foe.
So, with that brief backdrop in mind, let's first look at how the pair measure up to one another.
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TALE OF THE TAPE
CANELO ALVAREZ || GENNADIY GOLOVKIN
57-2-2 (39KO/63.93%) - RECORD - 42-1-1 (37KO/84.09%)
32 - AGE - 40
Mexico - NATIONALITY - Kazakhstan
5'8" - HEIGHT - 5'10½"
70½" - REACH - 70"
Orthodox - STANCE - Orthodox
NOTES: Both have similar enough records with similar success in terms of their results. However, where there is separation, is in the quality of their opposition where the two men have been campaigning. Golovkin is a lifelong Middleweight that has enjoyed a power advantage is virtually all contests. Now, with this fight at Super Middleweight, the tide might have shifted. Of course, in the last few years, Alvarez has matched himself against the much better opposition.
The biggest leg up either man possesses, one could argue, is the age advantage in favor of Alvarez. He's 8 years younger and in the physical prime of his life. Meanwhile, Golovkin is 40 and has been boxing since 1993 (as an amateur) -- Canelo was 3-years-old at the time. The one thing that could help Golovkin is that he hasn't been overly active and is a relatively fresh 40-year-old, all things considered.
COMPUBOX
CALENO ALVAREZ || GENNADIY GOLOVKIN
91.3 - AVERAGE LANDED - 242.6
13.3 - AVERAGE JABS - 102.6
354.0 - AVERAGE THROWN - 634.3
28.2% - AVERAGE TOTAL PERCENTAGE LANDED - 20.7%
104.3 - AVERAGE LANDED AGAINST - 10.3
478.3 - AVERAGE THROWN AGAINST - 128.3
21.8% - AVERAGE TOTAL PERCENTAGE LANDED AGAINST - 38.5%
117 (Caleb Plant) - HIGHEST TOTAL LANDED - 257 (Ryoto Murata)
495 (Dmitry Bivol) - HIGHEST TOTAL THROWN - 720 (Sergiy Derevnyanchenko)
152 (Dmitry Bivol) - HIGHEST TOTAL LANDED AGAINST - 230 (Sergiy Derevyanchenko)
710 (Dmitry Bivol) - HIGHEST TOTAL THROWN AGAINST - 738 (Sergiy Derevyanchenko)
(CompuBox stats account for each fighter's statistics in their last three outings.)
NOTES: Looking at the numbers, you can clearly see Golovkin is the busier of the two fighters, throwing nearly 300 more punchers per fight. And, when looking at the length of their most recent fights, they have lasted about the same amount of rounds. Meaning, Golovkin is simply the busier fighter. It's interesting to note that Golovkin is considered the bigger natural puncher, but still throws more and, as mentioned, has averaged roughly the same frames per contest.
Where Canelo really shines is in his efficiency. Canelo lands nearly 8% more of the time than Golovkin and has been able to still mostly stop recent opponents in the process. That number is much higher when you take out the Bivol loss, where Canelo was uncharacteristically inaccurate and brought this average down. Excluding that fight, Canelo has landed 34.6% in his two most recent outings.
LAST THREE OPPONENTS
CANELO ALVAREZ
L Dmitry Bivol, 12UD (05/07/2022)
W Caleb Plant, 11TKO (11/06/2021)
W Billy Joe Saunders, 8TKO (05/08/2021)
GENNADIY GOLOVKIN
W Ryoto Murata, 9TKO (04/09/2022)
W Kamil Szeremeta, 7TKO (12/18/2020)
W Sergiy Derevyanchenko, 12UD (10/05/2019)
NOTES: Canelo has been somewhat up and down in his last three outings. In 2021, Canelo seemed untouchable, handling whatever Billy Joe Saunders and Caleb Plant threw at him before stopping both undefeated fighters in the eighth and eleventh rounds, respectively. However, thus far in 2022, Canelo struggled mightily with Dmitry Bivol in his Light-Heavyweight title clash, looking one-dimensional at times during the contest.
Since his lone loss to Canelo, Golovkin has remained unbeaten, but has fought far less consistently than during his physical prime. While he fought earlier this year, stopping Ryoto Murata in April, Golovkin's second-to-last fight was almost a year and a half prior. The quality of that opposition would also likely be considered lower than the opponents of Canelo in most people's estimations.
BETTING ODDS
CANELO ALVAREZ || GENNADIY GOLOVKIN
-525 - STRAIGHT LINE - +365
-215 - OVER/UNDER: 10.5 - +150
NOTES: Alvarez is a strong favorite, and for good reason. While he's coming off a loss, Canelo has otherwise been in tremendous form and is still the much younger man still in the prime of his career. Considering his performances, his age, and his overall abilities, it makes sense that he's such a solid betting choice.
Golovkin will have a puncher's chance so long as the fight lasts, but with age, general wear and tear, and making his Super Middleweight debut at the age of 40, one suspects that he may perform under his usual standards. He already seemed easier to push back in their return bout at Middleweight, he could be significantly out-muscled at the new weight class.
BIGGEST QUESTIONS
In regards to Canelo, two big questions come to mind. The first is how well will he recover from just the second loss of his professional career? Does he make a statement? Will he try to hard to prove a point? You also have to wonder how well he has to perform against an aged Golovkin to make this fight and it's result seem significant. Is anything other than a dominant win (most likely by stoppage) considered a good look?
In the case of Golovkin, the big question that springs to the forefront of one's mind is whether or not his age will play a major role in this result. Can he turn back the clock one more time? Also, when considering this is his first foray into the 168 pound class, you also have to wonder how he responds to the punches. While he has had a great chin in prior fights, will it hold up eight pounds north of Middleweight?
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Thanks for reading, and I hope you enjoyed. You can leave any and all comments down below, I would love the feedback. For my prediction for Canelo Alvarez vs. Gennadiy Golovkin 3, you can click here.