THE RUNDOWN: JOSE ZEPEDA VS. REGIS PROGRAIS

By: Jay Calderon

INTRO: You unfortunately aren't going to hear a great deal about this Saturday's showdown between Jose Zepeda and Regis Prograis. However, I'm here to tell you that shouldn't be the case.

This fight has tremendous stakes with a vacant portion of the Jr. Welterweight title on the line and it pits two very solid talents against one another. What's more, it could well be a very late contender for Fight of the Year, considering the abilities and fighting styles of the boxers involved.

While you may not feel the buzz from this particular fight -- largely due to a lesser-known promoter handling the event and putting it on pay-per-view -- it's still a damn good showdown, and one that deserves a bit closer of a look. So, let's run this one down.

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TALE OF THE TAPE

JOSE ZEPEDA || REGIS PROGRAIS

33 - AGE - 33

United States - NATIONALITY - United States

5'8" - HEIGHT - 5'8"

70½" - REACH - 67"

Southpaw - STANCE - Southpaw

Robert Alcazar - TRAINER - Bobby Benton

NOTES: There isn't anything too gigantic that jumps out in terms of their numbers, outside of maybe the reach advantage possessed by Zepeda. With more than three extra inches of reach, Zepeda could use that stick to keep his man away and help set up those traps and counters.

The other interesting note is that they are both southpaws. Typically, the southpaw can utilize the unique look he's giving his opponent as an advantage for himself. However, that has effectively been neutralized by the other man. So, the fighter capable of adapting to that new circumstance the fastest will get off to the better start.

FIGHT STATS

JOSE ZEPEDA || REGIS PROGRAIS

12/25/2009 (W Ignacio Mondragon, 1KO) - DEBUT - 04/28/2012 (W Carl Almirol, 1KO)

35-2-0 (27KOs/69.23%) - RECORD - 27-1-0 (23KOs/82.14%)

157 - TOTAL ROUNDS FOUGHT - 125

4.24 - AVERAGE ROUNDS PER FIGHT - 4.46

8-1-0, 1NC (5KOs/50%) - RECORD IN PREVIOUS TEN - 9-1-0 (8KOs/80.00%)

0-2-0 (0KOs/00.00%) - CHAMPIONSHIP RECORD - 3-1-0 (2KOs/50.00%)

NOTES: In terms of overall activity, Zepeda certainly has a bit more experience in the sport. He's started three years earlier, has had roughly ten more professional bouts and over 30 more frames under his belt. However, their careers are fairly similar otherwise.

Their fights last about the same amount of rounds on average, they've had a similar run in their previous ten contests and have both had less than a handful of championship fights. However, Prograis does separate himself from Zepeda in terms of how successful he's been in those title fights.

The other number where Prograis stands out is his knockout percentage. While both certainly have respectable power, Progrias stops four out of five of his opponents. That power could certainly come into play in this encounter.

LAST THREE OPPONENTS

JOSE ZEPEDA

W Josue Vargas, 1TKO (10/30/2021)

W Henry Lundy, 10UD (05/22/2021)

W Ivan Baranchyk, 5KO (10/03/2020)

REGIS PROGRAIS

W Tyrone McKenna, 6TKO (03/19/2022)

W Ivan Redkach, 6TKO (04/17/2021)

W Juan Heraldez, 3TKO (10/31/2020)

NOTES: While neither man has faced the very best at 140 pounds in their last three encounters, one could argue Zepeda has faced the slightly better opposition. This is partly due to the fact that Zepeda was an underdog against Ivan Baranchyk, and was about even money against Josue Vargas come fight night. Meanwhile, Prograis has been a heavy favorite in all three of these fights.

That said, Prograis has certainly looked a bit better overall. Zepeda has looked mostly solid, but Prograis has hardly lost a round in these three previous contests. Still, it must be restated, the opposition hasn't been the strongest.

BETTING ODDS

JOSE ZEPEDA || REGIS PROGRAIS

+325 - STRAIGHT LINE- -500

-155 - OVER/UNDER: 10.5 - +110

NOTES: Jose opened as a solid underdog and has grown into a rather large underdog, with Regis now sitting at a 5-1 favorite. Most expected Prograis to be the betting odds favorite heading into this contest, though few likely expected the odds to be this wide.

The over/under appears to be about right. Whether you expect Zepeda or Prograis to come out on top, it's likely you expect it to go to the scorecards. Even predicting a stoppage likely means you think the ending comes in the latter rounds. Regardless, a challenging line in terms of finding value.

BIGGEST QUESTIONS

As it pertains to Zepeda, the questions are simple. Can you handle the power of Prograis? If you're unable to take the shots, you're going to be in for a rather long night. You also have to wonder if you're going to see Zepeda use his reach and try to box within himself? Will he make it more of a firefight? Again, how any of that fairs for Zepeda will greatly depend on how much Prograis' shots impact Jose.

In regards to Prograis, you question whether the somewhat softer touches leading into this fight will play themselves out in the fight. Should he have faced stiffer competition to better prepare for this opportunity? You also have to ponder what style of Prograis is going to show up on the night. Will he look to get inside and fight or is he going to try his luck boxing on the outside? And which style would be more effective?

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Thanks for reading, and I hope you enjoyed. Feel free to let me know what you think by clicking here. You can check out my Jose Zepeda vs. Regis Prograis prediction as well.