THE RUNDOWN: JUAN FRANCISCO ESTRADA VS. ROMAN GONZALEZ
By: Jay Calderon
INTRO: One of the best fights of the year is nearly upon us, and it's taken three years for us to get here in a sense. Originally, Juan Francisco Estrada and Roman Gonzalez faced off in November of 2012, with Gonzalez taking a unanimous decision victory. Then, in March of last year, Estrada returned the favor with a decision win of his own.
Now, almost exactly ten years later, both men are desperate to earn this win, the single victory that may determine just how they are perceived by fight fans long after they retire.
Will the younger, world champion Estrada prevail in the biggest win of his career, or will the older, future Hall of Famer Gonzalez cap off one of the most impressive careers south of 135 pounds? Let's run this one down.
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TALE OF THE TAPE
JUAN FRANCISCO ESTRADA || ROMAN GONZALEZ
32 - AGE - 35
Mexico - NATIONALITY - Nicaragua
5'4" - HEIGHT - 5'3"
66" - REACH - 64"
Orthodox - STANCE - Orthodox
Alfredo Caballero - TRAINER - Marcos Caballero
NOTES: When you look at their Tale of the Tape, the biggest areas that stand out are pretty obvious. Gonzalez, at 35 years of age, isn't a spring chicken, especially for the lighter weight classes. Meanwhile, one could argue Estrada is still at the tail end of his prime, meaning he should be in a better position as it pertains to things like reflexes, conditioning and overall wear and tear.
The other area of note is the reach advantage possessed by Estrada. However, that can be something of a non-issue in this particular rivalry for a few reasons. For starters, Estrada doesn't always utilize that reach he has and is willing to trade on the inside. Also, Gonzalez is very good and getting closer and neutralizing those challenges as the fight progresses. That combination means the two inch difference may not show too much of itself in this rubbermatch.
FIGHT STATS
JUAN FRANCISCO ESTRADA || ROMAN GONZALEZ
08/30/2008 (W Sergio Chavez, 4UD) - DEBUT - 07/01/2005 (W Ramon Urbina, 2KO)
43-3-0 (28KOs/60.87%) - RECORD - 51-3-0 (75.93KOs/82.14%)
310 - TOTAL ROUNDS FOUGHT - 283
6.73 - AVERAGE ROUNDS PER FIGHT - 5.24
9-1-0 (4KOs) - RECORD IN PREVIOUS TEN - 7-3-0 (4KOs)
11-2-0 (6KOs) - CHAMPIONSHIP RECORD - 17-3-0 (11KOs)
NOTES: Looking at the numbers, you can see both fighters have been around, with Estrada having boxed for 14 years and Gonzalez having fought for 17 years, respectively. The biggest numbers to jump out at you in terms of separation would be the how few rounds Roman has had compared to Estrada, when the former has had eight more professional fights. That stems from the power differential, where Gonzalez knocks out opponents 15% more of the time, with his fights ending a round and a half quicker.
Looking at their most recent fights, you can see that, on paper, Estrada has done a bit better with having only lost once in his last ten encounters. Meanwhile, Gonzalez has dropped three in his previous ten. That said, one has to look at those numbers with a bit more nuance. Two of those losses for Gonzalez come at the hands of Srisaket Sor Rungvisai, with their first encounter a close call. The third loss is to Estrada in a fight that many felt Gonzalez rightly won.
A scorecard here or there going the Roman's way, and Gonzalez might have only one loss during that stretch, the second fight with Sor Rungvisai, which he lost via stoppage. Naturally, that would also mean Estrada was 8-2 in his last ten. Of course, the results are what they are, but that color must be added to the picture.
JUAN FRANCISCO ESTRADA
W Argi Cortes, 12UD (09/03/2022)
W Roman Gonzalez, 12SD (03/13/2021)
W Carlos Cuadras, 11TKO (10/23/2020)
ROMAN GONZALEZ
W Julio Cesar Martinez, 12UD (03/05/2022)
L Juan Francisco Estrada, 12SD (03/13/2021)
W Israel Gonzalez, 12UD (03/19/2020)
NOTES: Officially, Estrada has remained unbeaten in his last three encounters, including his affair with Gonzalez. However, one could make a reasonable argument that Gonzalez has actually looked the better of the two in the ring.
Against Carlos Cuadras, Estrada trailed at times and was dropped in the contest before ultimately getting the stoppage win. Against Gonzalez, Estrada struggled at times and, as mentioned, lost the bout according to many observers. Though, it must be repeated, not to the majority of the official judges, which is all that matters. Still, he struggled, as he did against little-known Argi Cortes during periods of their encounter. It must be said, however, that Estrada hadn't fought in over a year and a half heading into the Cortes showdown.
Against relatively similar opponents, Gonzalez has looked better by most accounts. He appeared to do at least as well as Estrada in their encounter, and he easily handed little-known Israel Gonzalez and titlist Julio Cesar Martinez over twelve rounds. It should be noted Martinez moved up from Flyweight to Jr. Bantamweight for the encounter. Still, with those put in front of either fighter, Gonzalez may have done the better work of late.
BETTING ODDS
JUAN FRANCISCO ESTRADA || ROMAN GONZALEZ
+170 - STRAIGHT LINE - -225
-350 - OVER/UNDER: 10.5 - +230
NOTES: Even with being the younger man and having won their most recent encounter, Estrada originally opened as the underdog and has remained the underdog during the build-up. This likely stems from the fact he's performed less than his best self in recent outings, including in the second battle with Gonzalez.
The over/decision is the predicted finish, regardless of the fighter that comes out on top. While both men have respectable power and the fights have been fierce, there has been little in general to separate the pair and score cards are likely to play a factor into this third and presumably final showdown.
The best value may be with the under. Again, while it makes sense to assume this fight meets the judges, third encounters can sometimes have more emphatic outcomes. And with such a decent return for the under, one could argue a small/reasonable bet isn't the worst idea in the world.
BIGGEST QUESTIONS
As it pertains to Estrada, the biggest question that comes to mind involves his tactics. What will be change for their rubbermatch? Can he add a new wrinkle to his game that helps eliminate some of the better things Gonzalez looks to accomplish? If he tries to go right back into war, can he keep the pace Gonzalez looks to set?
With Gonzalez, you have to question his age. At 35 years of age, you have to wonder if time will catch up to the Nicaraguan great. Does he have another big win left in him? You especially have to think of this when considering Gonzalez' fighting style. He wants to press and engage in a busy battle. Can Gonzalez muster up another of those performances at this stage in his career?
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Thanks for reading, and I hope you enjoyed. Feel free to let me know what you think by clicking here. You can check out my Juan Francisco Estrada vs. Roman Gonzalez prediction as well.